Почему акции Автоваза так резко подорожали?
Опубликовано 3 Сен 2010 в Экономика | 2 комментария
Напомним, в предыдущей заметке мы рассказали, какие удивительные события происходили с акциями Автоваза в конце августа и — особенно — в первые дни сентября. Цена бумаг выросла более чем вдвое, а дневной объём торгов ими увеличился на два порядка. Теперь же попробуем разобраться, почему это произошло, рассмотрев как «официальные» версии, о которых говорят аналитики и журналисты, так и «неофициальные», но намного более правдоподобные.
«Официальная» причина столь бурных событий на рынке, которую озвучивают многие аналитики, заключается в том, что правительство, мол, провело «рекламную кампанию» Автоваза — премьер лично прокатился на Ладе, продемонстрировав свою поддержку заводу. Заодно вновь пошли разговоры о росте пошлин для иномарок и повышении цен на продукцию Автоваза. Это всё так, но вся эта возня могла добавить к текущим ценам процентов десять, и обороты могли вырасти в пару раз на пару дней. Но 100-200-кратный рост объёмов торгов и удвоение цены столь слабыми причинами не объяснишь.
Другая версия основывается на том, что у кого-то на рынке был инсайд по поводу результатов работы Автоваза в первой половине года. Как выяснилось, продажи завода значительно выросли по сравнению с прошлогодними данными. Правда, половина продаж пришлась на государственную программу поддержки автопроизводителей («Новый хлам в обмен на старый»). Сомневаюсь, что это — хороший повод для увеличения объёма продаж акций на два порядка. Другие версии значительно интереснее.
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Что происходит с акциями Автоваза?
Опубликовано 3 Сен 2010 в Портфель, Экономика | Комментариев нет
Первого числа очередного месяца, как обычно, добавил в виртуальный инвестиционный портфель на Fincake.ru свежие 50 тыс. рублей. И, как обычно, прикупил на них акции, которых на данный момент было меньше всего. Такими оказались Русгидро (на 10 тыс. рублей), Холдинг МРСК (на 10 тыс. рублей), Силовые машины (на 15 тыс. рублей) и префки Сургутнефтегаза (на 15 тыс. рублей). Дивиденды, которые положены по имеющимся бумагам, решил учесть на следующей неделе. Вносить их в портфель не буду, просто определюсь с суммой и запишу в прибыль (за вычетом налогов).
Неделя оказалась прибыльной, всё в целом в порядке. На рынке в основном продолжается «боковик», т.е. движение в определённом диапазоне без сильных взлётов и падений. Крупные инвесторы и спекулянты не очень хорошо понимают, что им делать, когда с одной стороны, в экономиках всё далеко не радостно (причём везде), а с другой, свободных денег полно и девать их куда-то надо. Вот и мыкаются, бедные, то вверх немного индексы загонят, то снова вниз уронят.
Но кое-что интересное на рынке всё-таки происходит. Правда, очень локально, буквально в одной бумажке — акциях Автоваза. Зато уж там-то – настоящее первое апреля в сумасшедшем доме. За последние две недели обыкновенные акции тазика подорожали более чем на 120%, а привилегированные — на 90%. Причём, по обеим бумагам проходят совершенно чудовищные (по их меркам) обороты. Что же происходит?
ПИФ для шизофреников
Опубликовано 31 Авг 2010 в Второй эшелон, Пифы | 6 комментариев
То, что мы живём в «последние дни» и что конец света будет выглядеть не как вселенская катастрофа, а как сумасшедший дом, наполненный пациентами с вялотекущей шизофренией, я понял давно. Но до сих пор иногда удивляюсь, насколько странные вещи происходят вокруг. Про российскую политику говорить не буду, там всё совсем запущено. Но вводящие в недоумение поступки совершают даже весьма консервативные и, казалось бы, нормальные структуры. Вирус сумасшествия распространяется безудержно.
Наш сегодняшний пациент – УК «Райффайзен Капитал». Вроде бы относительно пристойная контора, не Альфа-капитал какой-нибудь, но тут, должен признаться, порадовала. Получаю сегодня пресс-релиз, в котором сообщается, что ПИФ «Райффайзен – Телекоммуникации» переименован в ПИФ «Райффайзен – Телекоммуникации и Транспорт». Естественно, с изменением правил инвестирования — акцент в переименованном ПИФе будет делаться сразу на две отрасли — телеком и транспорт.
Смысл сего действия в том, что в скором времени большое число торгующихся на бирже телеком-компаний перестанет существовать, растворившись в новой «голубой фишке» российского фондового рынка — полугосударственном Ростелекоме. Это будет такой монстр типа прежнего РАО ЕЭС, объединяющий практически всю российскую связь, кроме трёх главных сотовых компаний (хотя, может быть, его руки дотянутся и до кого-то из этой тройки). Фактически, из отрасли связи на бирже останется этот самый Ростелеком да МТС. Держать в ПИФе две бумаги нельзя, отдавать деньги назад инвесторам не хочется, поэтому управляющие придумали к телекому присоединить ещё и транспорт. Зачем добру (чужим деньгам) пропадать? Подумаешь, люди вкладывались именно в связь, какая разница? Лёгким движением руки превращаем «идейный» ПИФ в странного уродца, объединяющего совершенно разные бумаги. Но и это ещё не всё.
Крупные инвесторы опасаются дефляции в США
Опубликовано 30 Авг 2010 в Переводы, Экономика | Комментариев нет
Источник: wsj.com
Перевод: Андрей Климов
Несколько знаменитых инвесторов выказывают обеспокоенность дефляционными процессами и меняют структуру своих портфелей в свете возможного снижения цен. К бою с дефляцией готовятся: тяжеловес на рынке облигаций Билл Гросс (Bill Gross), а также менеджеры хедж-фондов Дэвид Тэппер (David Tepper) и Алан Фурнье (Alan Fournier).
«Дефляция – не тема для интеллектуальных споров, она уже существует», – считает Билл Гросс, который управляет $239 млрд паевого инвестиционного фонда Pimco Total Return Fund. «Этот нестабильный мир вползает в дефляцию».
Беспокойство инвесторов было вызвано статистикой. Индекс потребительских цен вырос за год на 1,1%. Исследование валового внутреннего продукта показало, что основные двигатели инфляции – цены на продовольствие и электроэнергию – подросли всего на 1,1%, самую низкую величину со времён первого квартала 2009 года. Глава ФРС Сент-Луиса Джеймс Баллард (James Bullard) недавно предупредил экономическую общественность об угрозе дефляции японского типа и замедлении экономического роста.
Избранное с продолжением
Опубликовано 27 Авг 2010 в Техническое | Комментариев нет
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